Hey that was me ! And I did get called on it 
I was wrong and was essentially arguing for what is the lay persons definition.
I found it funny there was a 1 or 2 month long recession in 2020. So as I recall,
I was arguing due to the short length and being intentionally self induced, how could that be a recession ?
I believe it was @rtcoog that called me on it and pointed out NBER.
Life goes on.
Unemployment spikes during a recession. The number gathering lags perhaps a few weeks but the job losses are happening during the recession.
But seriously, that “recession” might have hit the indicators but there should always be a big * by it. It was an anomaly.
From that graph, that appears to be a true statement.
I’ll look forward to seeing the good dentist’s refutation data.
Um, yes I did. I went back and forth with NRG on it.
Here is the thread. I’ve been consistent on this one (and try to be in general).
This economy is unusual, nobody has a clear feel for it. As the Bloomberg guys said this morning the central banks are in a dark room trying to feel for furniture and the walls.
It always is and even more so coming out of a pandemic. I don’t envy the Fed. There is no getting it “right.”
I agree that is why I don’t agree with the Fed’s rate moves. They are too severe when you don’t have a clear feel for what is happening. To me everything is due to events and not due to the underlying economy.
Hell that is why I am a commercial banker and not a central banker,
If you think we are in a recession now, you buy the dips….if you think one is coming, you sell the rallies. Good luck.
I am in the “beats the shite out of me where we are”.
Even I think the rate increases are too drastic and too quick, after what has and is still happening with covid and russian war.
OTOH, it has been a long run of growth since 2009/10, and if you consider the graph coogcheese
posted , we are overdue for a recession.
So heads I win; tails I win.
Yeah NRG you leftist want calamity. But the vast majority of Americans want to be able to buy gas and food. That is it.
I don’t try to catch the falling knife.
No I like to mop up after the body with the knife in the back has bleed out. Q1 may have
been the market low point based on GDP data; but there will be two more revisions
of the Q2 data.
I think it’s interesting to look at how other countries are managing their money supply.
They mostly all seem to be in synch, but it may be more of a case of them following
the US lead.
The vast majority (of non poverty level people) want to be able to buy all their excessive crap and get gas/food cheap so they can buy more excessive crap. When enough lower and middle class get into a level of debt where they can’t buy excessive crap, a recession hits. Our economy is basically trying to balance getting as many people into debt to boost GDP and the stock market while not pushing them too far into debt where they stop spending and cause a recession.
That is just wrong
An exaggeration, but it’s all about spending. We will see mass layoffs and unemployment numbers go up when spending goes down. When people shift to just focusing on the essentials, the economy is screwed.
Hyperbolic but not wrong in a sense.
All economies are just ways to distribute goods and services to people with unlimited wants and needs.
In order to increase production of goods and services we have expanded personal borrowing so they can spend even more to satisfy those wants and needs. Once they get into too much debt spending can decrease causing problems for producers and suppliers.
Its all a balancing act in the end.
“Not wrong in a sense”
Oh boy, you got me there.
©Copyright 2017 Coogfans.com
