The more I read and think about this, I think we’re most likely gonna be part of the new expanded B12 that will have at least 12 schools. None of B12 can offer much outside of Kansas to B10. Tech and OSU are in same boat. Above average athletic programs but doesn’t deliver any true market.
So for me, my guess would be:
Expanded B12 - 60%
Expanded AAC- 39%
PAC 12 with Tech - 1%
Nash squatting down makes Hulk look like a midget
The 7 mil we are getting in the AAC is not our true value. Just like the ~37 mil UT got in the big 12. They are worth more but have to split with lower value teams.
The same is happening in the AAC.
You can’t negotiate saying, “our true value isn’t our true value.”
You have to show where you’ve generated revenue.
Value is a market concept.
This is why Baylor and KSU and Tech are going to have a hard time too. Its obvious they were not driving revenue in the conference. Now they want to go to the PAC and find other revenue programs (USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon) to cover them.
I know we probably bring in more, but nowhere near $30+ million, which is the argument here. I’m optimistic we improve our situation, which is just about the default setting with some good programs coming available (though like us, not worth $30+ million). We will be dancing in the streets if our payout goes to $12 million. Now, that is not a crazy idea, but going to the PAC???
I don’t think the Big12 wants Tulsa, Tulane or East Carolina. Their choices will probably be UH
and Cinn, but we will not see $31M.
Is it possible that we bring little to no money for OU/UT B12 but more to AAC? If yes, could we bring a lot more money to PAC, ACC and B10?
You think Baylor and Tech and Ok State will vote yes even though they know recruiting will hurt them?
If I were the PAC I would let the AAC-B12 reconstitute and take the best two overall programs 5 years down the road. Like a gladiator tournament.
That way you capitalize on their success and remain the last best conference.
The only question that matters is “does Houston create value to the networks if they move to the Pac 12?”.
Baylor is going to take a beat down when all the chips settle. Some will say “about time!”. Their history over the past two decades will play into it and especially with the out of control AD during the Briles tenure and lack control which they never have been punished for under Rape U will sink them for sure in the PAC. But before they even get to that reason of rejection their small market size in a crap hole like Waco and being a religious school has them out of the PAC in a NY minute.
They will be reluctant to invite UH because that will bring UH to thier level and we will clearly be a more desirable expansion candidate down the road. Right now they can say they are a power 5 school.
I stand behind my theory. If you worry about not being p5 with UT snd OU gone then you were never really p5 to begin with.
I hope Houston and Kansas join up and go to the PAC.
I don’t think BU is in any realignment conversion right now. Their best hope is for B12 to stay put and add 4-5 more schools. Making 12-15M is better than what they will get with AAC or CUSA. Forget about 30M. They will never see that again.
When the next Andre Ware shows up, it will.
Why not B10 if we’re partnering with KU. LOL
“That value is almost exclusively tied to one sport: Football accounts for approximately 85 cents out of every dollar paid out in media rights.”
This is it. Right here. This is why the PAC will not expand.
Lol.
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