I don’t think we would take anyone without a serious exit fee.
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Stanford wont go G5. They’ll go Indy, they have over $36 billion and are way richer than UT. Also keep in mind that they have also had talks with The Big 10.
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By what metric ? UT has more money than Stanford.
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I agree. They have the means and motivation to do it. Cal would do it if they can but are less likely to have the ability to (maybe Stanford would help).
(Right now odds favor Pac-12 sticking together, IMO, though not as much as they previously did.)
The BIG did not invite Oregon and Washington when they renewed their deal, why would they invite them mid contract when they are going to be dilutive.
As for the pac12, this board has been singing four corners to the big12 since last August. Those schools are not coming to the big12. They pac12 could get a 10 million dollar contract and none of their schools would jump.
…because they are going to realize expanding all of the way to the Pacific Coast states with only two schools, and both in Los Angeles was a huge mistake.
They will add Oregon and Washington to get coverage in all 3 Pacific Coast states.
They will add Stanford if/when Notre Dame accepts their invitation.
Remember…these conferences are very methodical in their moves
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Why haven’t they already realized it? What do you think it will take to get them to realize it?
Pac-12 schools are committed to waiting to see what kind of money they’re going to get. Right now they apparently believe it still be comparable to what we’re getting. If it is remotely comparable they will stay but if it’s $10m they definitely won’t.
(My best guess is anything over $25m they sta to, anything under $20m they go, and $20-25m is a question mark )
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Two stops to California . Thats all Rutgers, Maryland and the rest of them want to make. In and out, done. Not to Pullman or Eugene. Those two additional stops are unnecessary.
BIG is finished with west coast.
I can see them taking the two Bay Area ones just to “Own” California
They currently are receiving 20-25 million on their tv deal ( or thereabouts). Since media value have increased, worst case, it would be slightly over $25 million.
None of the corner schools are leaving the pac12, as long as Stanford and California are in that conference.
Oh well. The Big 12 will still be better in basketball and football, right?
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I think we take 4 at the most. ESPN will only pay per rata for 4 P5 teams approved by them.
UT system has more money than Stanford but not Austin by itself.
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My over/under is $27m, but I don’t consider $25m to be the worst case at all. It’s not hard to think of reasons that their value could have fallen substantially since their last contract. There’s not a rule that ESPN must pay a theoretical value when they are bidding against themselves and/or lowball offers. This is a lesson the AAC learned the hard way a decade ago. It’s very well a lesson the Big 12 might have learned if we’d held out for the open market.
Neither the Pac-12 nor Big 12 were or are in any danger of getting an AAC-level contract (even the new-improved one), but the same principles apply.
How much does ESPN need to pay the Pac-12 to avoid concern that somebody else might get the inventory they want? That could be a very low number (or it might not be. Are they sufficiently interested in the Pac-12’s viability that they would pay significantly more than that? I had kind of thought so, but it’s not the vibe I am getting right now.
A distinction without a difference because utexas has more resources than Stanford. Not only does it have a huge endowment, but a larger budget and also state support from the govt.
Stanford can try to go independent but it wouldn’t have the same result as if Texas goes independent.
Canzano:
Another way of saying that a conference has had intermittent conversations is to say that they have had multiple conversations.
Fresno State doesn’t pass the most basic smell tests. Unlike the Pac-12, the Big 12 doesn’t need to add more teams for a TV contract because, also unlike the Pac-12, they already have one. Further, that contract contains a pro-rata clause that excludes Fresno and Boise. I have no problem believing that Yormark has talked to them (the Big 12 reportedly talked to Southern Miss in 2021), but this is so silly.
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My strong feeling is the only G5 under any kind of realistic consideration is SDSU. I agree, Fresno State is just silly. This is just Yormark sniffing around a bit out west to ratchet up the pressure on the PAC teams that he really wants. He’s slowly turning the burner up on the stove to increase the chaos out there. My take.
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Hahahah. A nice reminder.
The PAC looking at SDSU and SMU now but earlier turned their noses up to UH BYU OU and OSU.
Elitism and bigotry hurt the those who engage in it. It’s anticompetitive and weakens the perpetrators - not just harms the other end of the equation. They PAC killed themself; so I can’t help but laughing.
All but the AZ schools seem to think they are above the Big 12. Let them burn lol. I’d take the AZ’s, wait for Washington and Oregon to call and forget the rest.
The ACC will break up eventually. No need to fill
up on appetizers before a big meal lol.
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What you don’t want to see , if you are a media executive, is conference commissioner you are negotiating with hiding behind a baseball cap, trying to look inconspicuous in a poorly attended basketball ballgame, while wooing a small private G5 school to join a conference you are about to dump millions on.
Pretty sure espn and other media executives called the conference offices wondering what’s going on.
Others, like CBS simply walked away.
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