Too Early Big 12 Deep Dive (26-27 season)

Dommy Dimes gonna hold it down til Toure gets back :muscle::coin:

https://x.com/CycloneMBB/status/2098162098509377564?s=20

Bunce was not highly sought after at Conroe but Donnie Schverak, assistant coach, loved him because he was 6-10 and hustled and had a younger 7-foot brother Dan who later signed with the Coogs before transferring to BYU.
I knew David well and was basically a bench guy who told me several stories about his roommate Rob Williams, none of which I will repeat.
But Rob was no doubt the best and most exciting high school guard I ever saw and we were lucky to get him at the time. He helped Guy get back to recruiting the city stars.

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Since this thread has been hijacked by trips down memory lane, to which I contributed, let me say that if given the choice, I would take Otis Birdsong over Rob Williams. I saw almost every home game each player played in person and games that were on the telly.

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Like I said Rob was the most exciting guard we ever had here, but now I would take Birdsong, Shead and Flemmings over him if I were building a team.

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Idk
 I think we’re gonna smell smoked schnitzel after we play this time
 :grin:

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Speaking of, Gillespie at the FT line will add a completely different dynamic.

REAL VOLUME and efficiency. nearly 80% at the stripe w/ over 200 attempts!

I haven’t seen anyone touch on this. He woulda led your team in attempts by a wide wide margin. @IowaCoog

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But it wasn’t in a power 4 conference, so did it even happen? Kind of like the tree in the woods is silent or super loud, I don’t know because I wasn’t there. That kinda thing.

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Rob W was an incredible/special super gifted talented bb player but carried heavy baggage
. But truly doubt he would make it under Coach Sampson

It tells me one thing
.he doesn’t mind contact and doesn’t try to avoid it.

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For all the positives about Chris Cenac’s game, I was disappointed in his FT %. 62.1%. His shooting form is good, I think he is a better FT shooter than he showed at UH.

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I forgot to click reply on this.

Just looking at the top 5 teams in the country:
Duke lead guard at 35 foul rate
Michigan’s too
Jayden Bradley from zona had a 52
Wagler from Illinois had a 52 foul rate

Literally in the top 5 of kenpom
 only Houston didn’t have a lead guard with a foul rate over 30

Houston is the exception dude.

And it’s not just free throws. It’s attacking the rim.

Houston doesn’t attack the rim and thus doesn’t draw fouls.

It’s always been weird to me that the toughest team on defense chooses the path of the absolute least resistance on their first offensive shot attempt.

It’s wild that pesik is saying guards who attack
The basket are losers

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Gotta use foul rate.

It’s broken down on when that play chooses to score, at what percentage does he draw a foul.

Not just raw free throws. Which will always be big heavy.

I think yall are both right and arguing different points. Pesik isn’t saying getting fouled and going to the rim is bad, he’s saying when the lead guard is reliant on getting to the line in order to score, that is a problem. For example are you getting 20% of your points from the line, or 70%.

I think we can all agree that it’s good to get in the paint and get to the line. You just don’t want to be reliant on a whistle, because at some point, you might not get it.

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Bradley’s foul rate is inflated by end-of-game intentional fouls and by the fact that he isn’t much of a scorer.

That’s part of why I don’t like using foul rate for this conversation. It strips away the context of what we’re actually discussing: being dependent on free throws for offense.

Once you turn it into a rate, you lose the volume context. How many free throws is the player actually taking? Is he a major scorer who depends on getting to the line, or is he someone who barely scores but happens to shoot end-of-game free throws, like Elliot Cadeau? Those are completely different situations.

But you also shifted the goalposts a little. You’ve started mixing moderate FT-rate guards into the conversation, when I was specifically talking about guards who are extremely reliant on getting to the line, like 3 of your guards.

You also brought up a team that started 3 bigs. Those 3 bigs accounted for roughly 70% of their scoring. They weren’t relying on their guards to generate the offense by getting to the line. So a guard having a high FT rate on that roster isn’t really the same coversation.

The concern is when your guards are responsible for 75% of your offense AND those guards are heavily dependent on getting to the line (How cincy is built next year). Historically, those types of teams usually don’t aren’t the big winners.

Baylor is a great example of the opposite. They won a national title with a 4-guard rotation, and none of those guards had an FT rate above 25. At least Houston had Sharp.

In my view, there are 2 primary ways teams have been built to win titles in the modern era:

  • Elite defense + tons of shooting: 3 or more high-volume, high-percentage shooters. Think Baylor’s Title or Houston in 2025. You don’t need to depend heavily on drawing fouls because you can generate efficient offense with shooting.

  • Oversized, physical teams: There are different versions of this. Maybe you play 3 bigs together, or your entire rotation is 6’4+. These teams naturally draw fouls because of their size and physicality. Opponents often have to compensate for the size disadvantage by playing more physically, which creates fouls.

My issue isn’t simply having a high FT rate. It’s building an offense where your primary guard scorers are responsible for most of your scoring and are heavily dependent on free throws to produce that scoring.

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200w (9)

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pimp-walk-funny-walk

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But you if you draw a foul at 50% of the time on your usage possessions and your shoot 35% on contested 3’s
.

My main point is
 I want guards who can score at the rim, score by drawing fouls and knock down 3’s at a good clip.

Relying on 3 pointers and Mid range jumpers without paint touches & rim pressure is a bad idea too.

Ultimate goal
 splash a few 3’s then when they they start face guarding, then back door then for a score at the rim where you can draw contact and score. But Houston guards historically take a lot of shots that defenses allow
 mid range jumpers and rarely every attack the rim.

The coogs average 2pt shot distance is 8.4 feet from the rim. That is 364th in the country, only 1 team is worse. Thry are 355 in foul rate.

If Houston attacked the rim more, they get fouled more and thus become a better offense.

I don’t think it’s even debatable. The mid range jumper is a bad shot.