We are in a recession but to some numbers do not matter. Instead they keep changing this thread's title. What does that tell you?

The Satellite
41

Who cares what defines a recession

Neither political party actually care about people, they just need votes. You are a vote.

People fighting over a damn word when there are more important issues facing the country right now

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42

Unemployment numbers usually lag behind the GDP predictors and that’s because companies do not start letting folks go until you are well into a recession.

43

I am a finance guy.

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44

That’s fine. But I’m being told it equals two consecutive quarters when it clearly doesn’t. That’s even been admitted by someone pushing back even if he’s ignoring it.

I don’t think I’m in anyway being the least flexible here. I mean, this thread says “officially.” Lol

45

I’m not a dem or the media so not sure why you quoted me. You also didn’t at all address what I said.

As I told someone else, you’ve voted for as many or more Dems in your life than I have.

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46

So I remember posts from someone here on Coogfans explaining to everyone that a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP and everything else that anyone mentioned was not what you would look for. The post were numerous and nobody, including you RT, ever called him out on it or even corrected it with the proper definition. But now that it has happened even the original poster that would make those posts is claiming that it is not the case anymore.

47

Hey that was me ! And I did get called on it :slight_smile:
I was wrong and was essentially arguing for what is the lay persons definition.
I found it funny there was a 1 or 2 month long recession in 2020. So as I recall,
I was arguing due to the short length and being intentionally self induced, how could that be a recession ?

I believe it was @rtcoog that called me on it and pointed out NBER.
Life goes on.

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48

Unemployment spikes during a recession. The number gathering lags perhaps a few weeks but the job losses are happening during the recession.

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49

But seriously, that “recession” might have hit the indicators but there should always be a big * by it. It was an anomaly.

50

From that graph, that appears to be a true statement.

I’ll look forward to seeing the good dentist’s refutation data.

51

Um, yes I did. I went back and forth with NRG on it.

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52

Here is the thread. I’ve been consistent on this one (and try to be in general).

53

This economy is unusual, nobody has a clear feel for it. As the Bloomberg guys said this morning the central banks are in a dark room trying to feel for furniture and the walls.

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54

It always is and even more so coming out of a pandemic. I don’t envy the Fed. There is no getting it “right.”

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55

I agree that is why I don’t agree with the Fed’s rate moves. They are too severe when you don’t have a clear feel for what is happening. To me everything is due to events and not due to the underlying economy.

Hell that is why I am a commercial banker and not a central banker,

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56

If you think we are in a recession now, you buy the dips
.if you think one is coming, you sell the rallies. Good luck.

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57

I am in the “beats the shite out of me where we are”.

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58

Even I think the rate increases are too drastic and too quick, after what has and is still happening with covid and russian war.

OTOH, it has been a long run of growth since 2009/10, and if you consider the graph coogcheese
posted , we are overdue for a recession.

So heads I win; tails I win.

59

Yeah NRG you leftist want calamity. But the vast majority of Americans want to be able to buy gas and food. That is it.

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60

I don’t try to catch the falling knife.

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